Skill: Polymarket Ai Divergence

Owner: adlai88

Summary: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, chec...

Tags: latest:2.0.6

Version history:

v2.0.6 | 2026-02-27T10:04:37.029Z | auto

• Added "difficulty: intermediate" to the SKILL.md metadata.
• No core logic or functionality changes; documentation update only.

v2.0.5 | 2026-02-27T05:51:27.079Z | auto

No changes detected in this version (2.0.5).

• No file changes or feature updates were made.
• All functionality and documentation remain the same as the previous version.

v2.0.4 | 2026-02-27T05:50:00.952Z | auto

• Updated internal logic in ai_divergence.py.
• No changes to user-facing documentation or configuration.
• No API changes or new features introduced in this version.

v2.0.3 | 2026-02-27T03:55:16.259Z | user

Add is_live_now field to Market dataclass; forward-compatible filter to skip not-yet-open markets

v2.0.2 | 2026-02-25T13:56:36.305Z | auto

No file changes were detected in this version.

• Version bump to 2.0.2 with no code or documentation changes.
• No user-facing functionality added, removed, or altered.

v2.0.1 | 2026-02-25T13:46:20.665Z | auto

• Updated SKILL.md to clarify that Simmer's AI consensus price is derived from multi-model ensemble forecasting.
• No changes to core logic or functionality—documentation update only.

v1.0.6 | 2026-02-24T12:31:30.238Z | auto

Version 2.0.0 introduces live trading with Kelly sizing and robust safeguards.

• Adds automated trading: executes trades on zero-fee markets with AI vs market price divergence above 2%.
• Implements Kelly criterion for position sizing, capped at 25% to limit risk.
• Filters only to zero-fee markets to avoid fee drag.
• Introduces safeguards: flip-flop detection, existing position checks, daily budget limits.
• CLI now supports live mode, config inspection/updates, and more granular trade controls.

v1.0.5 | 2026-02-20T07:26:01.390Z | user

Filter noise: use /opportunities endpoint to exclude tracking-only markets where divergence is LMSR drift

v1.0.4 | 2026-02-17T04:04:02.397Z | auto

• Added simmer-sdk as a required pip dependency in metadata for easier setup.
• Clarified that this skill is a template for customization and extension.
• Removed the SIMMER_API_URL config from documentation; only SIMMER_API_KEY is now required.
• Incremented version to 1.0.4 for these dependency and documentation improvements.

v1.0.3 | 2026-02-14T14:59:03.600Z | auto

Polymarket AI Divergence 1.0.3

• Added SKILL.md documentation: comprehensive usage guide, configuration, API details, and example commands.
• Clarifies how to interpret divergence signals between Simmer's AI and Polymarket prices.
• Lists quick command-line options for scanning and filtering trading opportunities.
• Includes troubleshooting tips for common setup issues.

Archive index:

Archive v2.0.6: 4 files, 9945 bytes

Files: ai_divergence.py (20687b), scripts/status.py (2251b), SKILL.md (5672b), _meta.json (143b)

File v2.0.6:SKILL.md

---

name: polymarket-ai-divergence displayName: Polymarket AI Divergence description: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge. metadata: {"clawdbot":{"emoji":"🔮","requires":{"env":["SIMMER_API_KEY"],"pip":["simmer-sdk"]},"cron":null,"autostart":false,"automaton":{"managed":true,"entrypoint":"ai_divergence.py"},"tunables":[{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE","type":"number","default":0.05,"range":[0.01,0.30],"step":0.01,"label":"Minimum edge threshold"},{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET_USD","type":"number","default":50,"range":[1,200],"step":5,"label":"Max bet per trade"},{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP","type":"number","default":0.25,"range":[0.01,1.0],"step":0.01,"label":"Kelly fraction cap"},{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET_USD","type":"number","default":100,"range":[10,500],"step":10,"label":"Daily budget"},{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN","type":"number","default":5,"range":[1,20],"step":1,"label":"Max trades per run"},{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION_FILTER","type":"enum","default":"any","options":["any","yes_only","no_only"],"label":"Direction filter"}]}} authors:

• Simmer (@simmer_markets) version: "2.0.2" difficulty: intermediate published: true

---

Polymarket AI Divergence Trader

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.

This is a template. The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

What It Does

1. Scans all active markets for AI vs market price divergence
2. Filters to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees
3. Checks safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)
4. Sizes using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively
5. Executes trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)

Quick Commands

# Scan only (dry run, no trades)
python ai_divergence.py

# Scan + execute trades
python ai_divergence.py --live

# Only show bullish divergences
python ai_divergence.py --bullish

# Only >15% divergence
python ai_divergence.py --min 15

# JSON output
python ai_divergence.py --json

# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)
python ai_divergence.py --live --quiet

# Show config
python ai_divergence.py --config

# Update config
python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10

Configuration

| Key | Env Var | Default | Description | |-----|---------|---------|-------------| | min_divergence | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN | 5.0 | Min divergence % for scanner display | | min_edge | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE | 0.02 | Min divergence to trade (2%) | | max_bet_usd | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET | 5.0 | Max bet per trade | | max_trades_per_run | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES | 3 | Max trades per cycle | | kelly_cap | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP | 0.25 | Kelly fraction cap | | daily_budget | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET | 25.0 | Daily spend limit | | default_direction | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION | (both) | Filter: "bullish" or "bearish" |

Update via CLI: python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10

How It Works

Divergence Signal

Each imported market has two prices:

• AI consensus (current_probability) — Simmer's AI consensus price, derived from multi-model ensemble forecasting
• External price (external_price_yes) — Real market price on Polymarket/Kalshi

divergence = AI consensus - external price

When divergence > 0: AI thinks the market is underpriced → buy YES When divergence < 0: AI thinks the market is overpriced → buy NO

Kelly Sizing

Position size uses the Kelly criterion:

kelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)
position_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd

Capped at kelly_cap (default 25%) to limit risk.

Fee Filtering

75% of Polymarket markets have 0% fees. The remaining 25% charge 10% (short-duration crypto/sports). This skill only trades zero-fee markets to avoid fee drag eroding the edge.

Safeguards

• Fee check: Skips markets with any taker fee
• Flip-flop detection: Uses SDK's context API to detect contradictory trades
• Position check: Skips markets where you already hold a position
• Daily budget: Stops trading when daily spend limit is reached
• Kelly sizing: Conservative sizing prevents over-betting

API Endpoints Used

• GET /api/sdk/markets/opportunities — Divergence-ranked market list
• GET /api/sdk/context/{market_id} — Fee rate and safeguards per market
• POST /api/sdk/trade — Trade execution (via SDK client)
• GET /api/sdk/positions — Current portfolio positions

Troubleshooting

"No markets above min edge threshold" → All divergences are below the min_edge setting. Lower it with --set min_edge=0.01 or wait for larger divergences.

"Daily budget exhausted" → The skill has hit its daily spend limit. Adjust with --set daily_budget=50.

All markets skipped for fees → Only zero-fee markets are traded. If all available divergence opportunities have fees, no trades execute. This is by design.

"context fetch failed" → The SDK context endpoint is rate-limited (18 req/min). If running frequently, reduce max_trades_per_run.

File v2.0.6:_meta.json

{ "ownerId": "kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x", "slug": "polymarket-ai-divergence", "version": "2.0.6", "publishedAt": 1772186677029 }

Archive v2.0.5: 4 files, 9930 bytes

Files: ai_divergence.py (20687b), scripts/status.py (2251b), SKILL.md (5647b), _meta.json (143b)

File v2.0.5:SKILL.md

---

name: polymarket-ai-divergence displayName: Polymarket AI Divergence description: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge. metadata: {"clawdbot":{"emoji":"🔮","requires":{"env":["SIMMER_API_KEY"],"pip":["simmer-sdk"]},"cron":null,"autostart":false,"automaton":{"managed":true,"entrypoint":"ai_divergence.py"},"tunables":[{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE","type":"number","default":0.05,"range":[0.01,0.30],"step":0.01,"label":"Minimum edge threshold"},{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET_USD","type":"number","default":50,"range":[1,200],"step":5,"label":"Max bet per trade"},{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP","type":"number","default":0.25,"range":[0.01,1.0],"step":0.01,"label":"Kelly fraction cap"},{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET_USD","type":"number","default":100,"range":[10,500],"step":10,"label":"Daily budget"},{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN","type":"number","default":5,"range":[1,20],"step":1,"label":"Max trades per run"},{"env":"SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION_FILTER","type":"enum","default":"any","options":["any","yes_only","no_only"],"label":"Direction filter"}]}} authors:

• Simmer (@simmer_markets) version: "2.0.2" published: true

---

Polymarket AI Divergence Trader

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.

This is a template. The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

What It Does

1. Scans all active markets for AI vs market price divergence
2. Filters to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees
3. Checks safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)
4. Sizes using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively
5. Executes trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)

Quick Commands

# Scan only (dry run, no trades)
python ai_divergence.py

# Scan + execute trades
python ai_divergence.py --live

# Only show bullish divergences
python ai_divergence.py --bullish

# Only >15% divergence
python ai_divergence.py --min 15

# JSON output
python ai_divergence.py --json

# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)
python ai_divergence.py --live --quiet

# Show config
python ai_divergence.py --config

# Update config
python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10

Configuration

| Key | Env Var | Default | Description | |-----|---------|---------|-------------| | min_divergence | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN | 5.0 | Min divergence % for scanner display | | min_edge | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE | 0.02 | Min divergence to trade (2%) | | max_bet_usd | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET | 5.0 | Max bet per trade | | max_trades_per_run | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES | 3 | Max trades per cycle | | kelly_cap | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP | 0.25 | Kelly fraction cap | | daily_budget | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET | 25.0 | Daily spend limit | | default_direction | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION | (both) | Filter: "bullish" or "bearish" |

Update via CLI: python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10

How It Works

Divergence Signal

Each imported market has two prices:

• AI consensus (current_probability) — Simmer's AI consensus price, derived from multi-model ensemble forecasting
• External price (external_price_yes) — Real market price on Polymarket/Kalshi

divergence = AI consensus - external price

When divergence > 0: AI thinks the market is underpriced → buy YES When divergence < 0: AI thinks the market is overpriced → buy NO

Kelly Sizing

Position size uses the Kelly criterion:

kelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)
position_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd

Capped at kelly_cap (default 25%) to limit risk.

Fee Filtering

75% of Polymarket markets have 0% fees. The remaining 25% charge 10% (short-duration crypto/sports). This skill only trades zero-fee markets to avoid fee drag eroding the edge.

Safeguards

• Fee check: Skips markets with any taker fee
• Flip-flop detection: Uses SDK's context API to detect contradictory trades
• Position check: Skips markets where you already hold a position
• Daily budget: Stops trading when daily spend limit is reached
• Kelly sizing: Conservative sizing prevents over-betting

API Endpoints Used

• GET /api/sdk/markets/opportunities — Divergence-ranked market list
• GET /api/sdk/context/{market_id} — Fee rate and safeguards per market
• POST /api/sdk/trade — Trade execution (via SDK client)
• GET /api/sdk/positions — Current portfolio positions

Troubleshooting

"No markets above min edge threshold" → All divergences are below the min_edge setting. Lower it with --set min_edge=0.01 or wait for larger divergences.

"Daily budget exhausted" → The skill has hit its daily spend limit. Adjust with --set daily_budget=50.

All markets skipped for fees → Only zero-fee markets are traded. If all available divergence opportunities have fees, no trades execute. This is by design.

"context fetch failed" → The SDK context endpoint is rate-limited (18 req/min). If running frequently, reduce max_trades_per_run.

File v2.0.5:_meta.json

{ "ownerId": "kn7axnp7bzqsf5fkx0z8px7han7zyq1x", "slug": "polymarket-ai-divergence", "version": "2.0.5", "publishedAt": 1772171487079 }