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Agent DossierCLAWHUBSafety 84/100

Xpersona Agent

polymarket-ai-divergence

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge. --- name: polymarket-ai-divergence displayName: Polymarket AI Divergence description: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge. metadata: {"clawdbot":{"emoji":"🔮","requires":{"env":["SIMMER_API_KEY"],"pip":["simmer-sdk

OpenClaw · self-declared
Trust evidence available
View on ClawHub
clawhub skill install skills:adlai88:polymarket-ai-divergence

Overall rank

#62

Adoption

No public adoption signal

Trust

Unknown

Freshness

Feb 25, 2026

Freshness

Last checked Feb 25, 2026

Best For

polymarket-ai-divergence is best for only workflows where OpenClaw compatibility matters.

Not Ideal For

Contract metadata is missing or unavailable for deterministic execution.

Evidence Sources Checked

editorial-content, CLAWHUB, runtime-metrics, public facts pack

OverviewEvidence & TimelineArtifacts & DocsAPI & ReliabilityMedia & RelatedMachine Appendix

Overview

Key links, install path, reliability highlights, and the shortest practical read before diving into the crawl record.

Verifiededitorial-content

Overview

Executive Summary

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge. --- name: polymarket-ai-divergence displayName: Polymarket AI Divergence description: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge. metadata: {"clawdbot":{"emoji":"🔮","requires":{"env":["SIMMER_API_KEY"],"pip":["simmer-sdk Capability contract not published. No trust telemetry is available yet. Last updated 4/15/2026.

No verified compatibility signals

Trust score

Unknown

Compatibility

OpenClaw

Freshness

Feb 25, 2026

Vendor

Openclaw

Artifacts

0

Benchmarks

0

Last release

Unpublished

Install & run

Setup Snapshot

clawhub skill install skills:adlai88:polymarket-ai-divergence
  1. 1

    Setup complexity is LOW. This package is likely designed for quick installation with minimal external side-effects.

  2. 2

    Final validation: Expose the agent to a mock request payload inside a sandbox and trace the network egress before allowing access to real customer data.

Evidence & Timeline

Public facts grouped by evidence type, plus release and crawl events with provenance and freshness.

Verifiededitorial-content

Public facts

Evidence Ledger

Vendor (1)

Vendor

Openclaw

profilemedium
Observed Apr 15, 2026Source linkProvenance
Compatibility (1)

Protocol compatibility

OpenClaw

contractmedium
Observed Apr 15, 2026Source linkProvenance
Security (1)

Handshake status

UNKNOWN

trustmedium
Observed unknownSource linkProvenance
Integration (1)

Crawlable docs

6 indexed pages on the official domain

search_documentmedium
Observed Apr 15, 2026Source linkProvenance

Events

Release & Crawl Timeline

Docs Update

Docs refreshed: Sign in to GitHub · GitHub

search_documentmedium

Fresh crawlable documentation was indexed for the official domain.

Observed Apr 15, 2026

Artifacts & Docs

Parameters, dependencies, examples, extracted files, editorial overview, and the complete README when available.

Self-declaredCLAWHUB

Captured outputs

Artifacts Archive

Extracted files

0

Examples

2

Snippets

0

Languages

typescript

Parameters

Executable Examples

bash

# Scan only (dry run, no trades)
python ai_divergence.py

# Scan + execute trades
python ai_divergence.py --live

# Only show bullish divergences
python ai_divergence.py --bullish

# Only >15% divergence
python ai_divergence.py --min 15

# JSON output
python ai_divergence.py --json

# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)
python ai_divergence.py --live --quiet

# Show config
python ai_divergence.py --config

# Update config
python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10

text

kelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)
position_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd

Editorial read

Docs & README

Docs source

CLAWHUB

Editorial quality

ready

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge. --- name: polymarket-ai-divergence displayName: Polymarket AI Divergence description: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge. metadata: {"clawdbot":{"emoji":"🔮","requires":{"env":["SIMMER_API_KEY"],"pip":["simmer-sdk

Full README

name: polymarket-ai-divergence displayName: Polymarket AI Divergence description: Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge. metadata: {"clawdbot":{"emoji":"🔮","requires":{"env":["SIMMER_API_KEY"],"pip":["simmer-sdk"]},"cron":null,"autostart":false,"automaton":{"managed":true,"entrypoint":"ai_divergence.py"}}} authors:

  • Simmer (@simmer_markets) version: "2.0.0" published: true

Polymarket AI Divergence Trader

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.

This is a template. The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

What It Does

  1. Scans all active markets for AI vs market price divergence
  2. Filters to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees
  3. Checks safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)
  4. Sizes using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively
  5. Executes trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)

Quick Commands

# Scan only (dry run, no trades)
python ai_divergence.py

# Scan + execute trades
python ai_divergence.py --live

# Only show bullish divergences
python ai_divergence.py --bullish

# Only >15% divergence
python ai_divergence.py --min 15

# JSON output
python ai_divergence.py --json

# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)
python ai_divergence.py --live --quiet

# Show config
python ai_divergence.py --config

# Update config
python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10

Configuration

| Key | Env Var | Default | Description | |-----|---------|---------|-------------| | min_divergence | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN | 5.0 | Min divergence % for scanner display | | min_edge | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE | 0.02 | Min divergence to trade (2%) | | max_bet_usd | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET | 5.0 | Max bet per trade | | max_trades_per_run | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES | 3 | Max trades per cycle | | kelly_cap | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP | 0.25 | Kelly fraction cap | | daily_budget | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET | 25.0 | Daily spend limit | | default_direction | SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DIRECTION | (both) | Filter: "bullish" or "bearish" |

Update via CLI: python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10

How It Works

Divergence Signal

Each imported market has two prices:

  • AI consensus (current_probability) — Simmer's multi-model ensemble price (6 LLMs × 6 personas + SDK agent trades)
  • External price (external_price_yes) — Real market price on Polymarket/Kalshi

divergence = AI consensus - external price

When divergence > 0: AI thinks the market is underpriced → buy YES When divergence < 0: AI thinks the market is overpriced → buy NO

Kelly Sizing

Position size uses the Kelly criterion:

kelly_fraction = edge / (1 - price)
position_size = kelly_fraction * max_bet_usd

Capped at kelly_cap (default 25%) to limit risk.

Fee Filtering

75% of Polymarket markets have 0% fees. The remaining 25% charge 10% (short-duration crypto/sports). This skill only trades zero-fee markets to avoid fee drag eroding the edge.

Safeguards

  • Fee check: Skips markets with any taker fee
  • Flip-flop detection: Uses SDK's context API to detect contradictory trades
  • Position check: Skips markets where you already hold a position
  • Daily budget: Stops trading when daily spend limit is reached
  • Kelly sizing: Conservative sizing prevents over-betting

API Endpoints Used

  • GET /api/sdk/markets/opportunities — Divergence-ranked market list
  • GET /api/sdk/context/{market_id} — Fee rate and safeguards per market
  • POST /api/sdk/trade — Trade execution (via SDK client)
  • GET /api/sdk/positions — Current portfolio positions

Troubleshooting

"No markets above min edge threshold" → All divergences are below the min_edge setting. Lower it with --set min_edge=0.01 or wait for larger divergences.

"Daily budget exhausted" → The skill has hit its daily spend limit. Adjust with --set daily_budget=50.

All markets skipped for fees → Only zero-fee markets are traded. If all available divergence opportunities have fees, no trades execute. This is by design.

"context fetch failed" → The SDK context endpoint is rate-limited (18 req/min). If running frequently, reduce max_trades_per_run.

API & Reliability

Machine endpoints, contract coverage, trust signals, runtime metrics, benchmarks, and guardrails for agent-to-agent use.

MissingCLAWHUB

Machine interfaces

Contract & API

Endpoints

Dossier APISnapshot APIContract APITrust API

Contract coverage

Status

missing

Auth

None

Streaming

No

Data region

Unspecified

Protocol support

OpenClaw: self-declared

Requires: none

Forbidden: none

Guardrails

Operational confidence: low

No positive guardrails captured.
Invocation examples
curl -s "https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/snapshot"
curl -s "https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/contract"
curl -s "https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/trust"

Operational fit

Reliability & Benchmarks

Trust signals

Handshake

UNKNOWN

Confidence

unknown

Attempts 30d

unknown

Fallback rate

unknown

Runtime metrics

Observed P50

unknown

Observed P95

unknown

Rate limit

unknown

Estimated cost

unknown

Do not use if

Contract metadata is missing or unavailable for deterministic execution.
No benchmark suites or observed failure patterns are available.

Media & Related

Public screenshots, demo and owner links, plus neighboring agents from the same ecosystem for shortlist building.

Missingno-media

Visual context

Media & Demo

No screenshots, media assets, or demo links are available.

Comparison set

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Traction

No public download signal

Freshness

Updated 2d ago

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Machine Appendix

Raw contract, invocation, trust, capability, facts, and change-event payloads for machine-side inspection.

MissingCLAWHUB

Contract JSON

{
  "contractStatus": "missing",
  "authModes": [],
  "requires": [],
  "forbidden": [],
  "supportsMcp": false,
  "supportsA2a": false,
  "supportsStreaming": false,
  "inputSchemaRef": null,
  "outputSchemaRef": null,
  "dataRegion": null,
  "contractUpdatedAt": null,
  "sourceUpdatedAt": null,
  "freshnessSeconds": null
}

Invocation Guide

{
  "preferredApi": {
    "snapshotUrl": "https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/snapshot",
    "contractUrl": "https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/contract",
    "trustUrl": "https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/trust"
  },
  "curlExamples": [
    "curl -s \"https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/snapshot\"",
    "curl -s \"https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/contract\"",
    "curl -s \"https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/trust\""
  ],
  "jsonRequestTemplate": {
    "query": "summarize this repo",
    "constraints": {
      "maxLatencyMs": 2000,
      "protocolPreference": [
        "OPENCLEW"
      ]
    }
  },
  "jsonResponseTemplate": {
    "ok": true,
    "result": {
      "summary": "...",
      "confidence": 0.9
    },
    "meta": {
      "source": "CLAWHUB",
      "generatedAt": "2026-04-17T00:16:03.177Z"
    }
  },
  "retryPolicy": {
    "maxAttempts": 3,
    "backoffMs": [
      500,
      1500,
      3500
    ],
    "retryableConditions": [
      "HTTP_429",
      "HTTP_503",
      "NETWORK_TIMEOUT"
    ]
  }
}

Trust JSON

{
  "status": "unavailable",
  "handshakeStatus": "UNKNOWN",
  "verificationFreshnessHours": null,
  "reputationScore": null,
  "p95LatencyMs": null,
  "successRate30d": null,
  "fallbackRate": null,
  "attempts30d": null,
  "trustUpdatedAt": null,
  "trustConfidence": "unknown",
  "sourceUpdatedAt": null,
  "freshnessSeconds": null
}

Capability Matrix

{
  "rows": [
    {
      "key": "OPENCLEW",
      "type": "protocol",
      "support": "unknown",
      "confidenceSource": "profile",
      "notes": "Listed on profile"
    },
    {
      "key": "only",
      "type": "capability",
      "support": "supported",
      "confidenceSource": "profile",
      "notes": "Declared in agent profile metadata"
    }
  ],
  "flattenedTokens": "protocol:OPENCLEW|unknown|profile capability:only|supported|profile"
}

Facts JSON

[
  {
    "factKey": "docs_crawl",
    "category": "integration",
    "label": "Crawlable docs",
    "value": "6 indexed pages on the official domain",
    "href": "https://github.com/login?return_to=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2Fopenclaw%2Fskills%2Ftree%2Fmain%2Fskills%2Fasleep123%2Fcaldav-calendar",
    "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/login?return_to=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2Fopenclaw%2Fskills%2Ftree%2Fmain%2Fskills%2Fasleep123%2Fcaldav-calendar",
    "sourceType": "search_document",
    "confidence": "medium",
    "observedAt": "2026-04-15T05:03:46.393Z",
    "isPublic": true
  },
  {
    "factKey": "vendor",
    "category": "vendor",
    "label": "Vendor",
    "value": "Openclaw",
    "href": "https://github.com/openclaw/skills/tree/main/skills/adlai88/polymarket-ai-divergence",
    "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/openclaw/skills/tree/main/skills/adlai88/polymarket-ai-divergence",
    "sourceType": "profile",
    "confidence": "medium",
    "observedAt": "2026-04-15T00:45:39.800Z",
    "isPublic": true
  },
  {
    "factKey": "protocols",
    "category": "compatibility",
    "label": "Protocol compatibility",
    "value": "OpenClaw",
    "href": "https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/contract",
    "sourceUrl": "https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/contract",
    "sourceType": "contract",
    "confidence": "medium",
    "observedAt": "2026-04-15T00:45:39.800Z",
    "isPublic": true
  },
  {
    "factKey": "handshake_status",
    "category": "security",
    "label": "Handshake status",
    "value": "UNKNOWN",
    "href": "https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/trust",
    "sourceUrl": "https://xpersona.co/api/v1/agents/clawhub-skills-adlai88-polymarket-ai-divergence/trust",
    "sourceType": "trust",
    "confidence": "medium",
    "observedAt": null,
    "isPublic": true
  }
]

Change Events JSON

[
  {
    "eventType": "docs_update",
    "title": "Docs refreshed: Sign in to GitHub · GitHub",
    "description": "Fresh crawlable documentation was indexed for the official domain.",
    "href": "https://github.com/login?return_to=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2Fopenclaw%2Fskills%2Ftree%2Fmain%2Fskills%2Fasleep123%2Fcaldav-calendar",
    "sourceUrl": "https://github.com/login?return_to=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2Fopenclaw%2Fskills%2Ftree%2Fmain%2Fskills%2Fasleep123%2Fcaldav-calendar",
    "sourceType": "search_document",
    "confidence": "medium",
    "observedAt": "2026-04-15T05:03:46.393Z",
    "isPublic": true
  }
]

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